Opinion: Ireland should look to target defensive frailties of Welsh midfield

Wales' midfield pairing as missing one tackle in every four they attempt and Irish have the players to exploit them.

Neither Jamie Roberts nor Jonathan Davies have set Top 14 alight since their big money moves. The men that Warren Gatland opted to pair for the Lions' Third Test against Australia [at the expense of Brian O'Driscoll and Manu Tuilagi] have, at times, looked shadows of their 2013 versions. England delivered a blue-print of how to nullify their threat - rushing up in defence - and, as a result, Wales have looked blunt. As former Munster back Paul Warwick told us, 'There is a lack of depth [in midfield]. Roberts and Davies are token selections, I feel. Picked on reputation.' Of course, by highlighting perceived failures of a player, or players, one stands the risk of being made to look foolish. An English rugby correspondent backed his countrymen to "expose" Robbie Henshaw and Jared Payne on March 1 only for the Connacht player to put in a man-of-the-match performance. Roberts is a player capable of delivering a big performance just when it is needed [Lions tour of 2009, versus Ireland in RWC 2011 and versus England in 2013] but has been on the wane. He is averaging 28 metres gained per match, on an average of 10 carries and with zero clean breaks. Davies, who has three tries in four Tests against Ireland, is averaging seven carries per match, has one clean break, five defenders beaten and one try to his name. In defence, Roberts has been more solid than the Clermont centre, and former Scarlets captain, but neither have covered themselves in glory. In Davies' first two games, he made seven tackles but missed five. He rectified that against France [nine successful tackles] and achieved his third turnover of the championship. Roberts has yet to affect a turnover and has missed four of the 26 tackles he has attempted. Not a bad return but a couple of misses too many.

The big hit

Roberts prides himself on being the defensive leader of the Welsh backline but possesses a weakness - of jumping the gun - that has twice been exposed, and resulted in opposition tries, in this season's Top 14. One of those occasions was against Grenoble. The club's backs coach, Mike Prendergast, noticed how Roberts liked to shoot out of the line to make a big defensive hit. Thus, if one of the Grenoble players could time their pass exactly, it would draw Roberts out and created a hole in the Racing Métro backline. Nigel Hunt succeeds in doing so and slides a pass to Chris Farrell as Roberts nears: The result is a try for Grenoble's Ulster centre: Roberts' tendency to make split decisions and desire to make the big plays [and hits] will surely be an area Joe Schmidt will look at this Saturday. Expect Murray and Sexton to play a high line - when they are not, according to Warren Gatland, 'kicking the leather off the ball'. This match may be perfectly suited for Jared Payne. The quiet man of the Irish backline, so far, has the vision and handling to put teammates through any holes Roberts and Davies may leave.