This was inevitable, but we did not expect it so soon.
When Joe Schmidt named his 31-man Ireland squad to travel to the World Cup, there were three contentious decisions and three lads extremely unlucky to be left at home:
- Devin Toner
- Jordi Murphy
- Will Addison
Rhys Ruddock had been chosen ahead of Murphy in a tight call and it the reasoning, to Joe Schmidt, would have been Ruddock’s added physicality and his option as a midweek captain. Murphy is now packing his bags for Japan, anyway, after Jack Conan fractured his foot.
Chris Farrell went ahead of Will Addison as Schmidt was happy with his medical staff’s take on when Joey Carbery would return to play. The big call, and the one that could yet define this World Cup campaign, was Jean Kleyn and Tadhg Beirne making the plane while Devin Toner was left at home. Kleyn has yet to play but Toner may not have made the first two matchday squads even if he was in Japan.
There was little talk of the likes of foreign-based players like Simon Zebo, Ian Madigan, Paddy Jackson, Stuart Olding or Donnacha Ryan missing out. Sure, the odd, irate tweet, but most Irish rugby fans agreed with 28 or 29 of Schmidt’s final squad calls. That’s a solid return.
Four years of planning, 40 debuts handed out, one Grand Slam won along the way and a few monkeys [beating New Zealand twice and winning away to Australia and South Africa] off our back. Schmidt, handed more power over our system than any other Irish coach in history, was going to the World Cup with his strongest squad possible. We were a Dan Leavy or Sean O’Brien short of having one of the best squads in the competition.
It started so well in Yokohama but has taken a horrible turn in Shizuoka.
Ireland always knew they had to play their first two big games in a row but injuries, and carrying injured players, messed with Schmidt’s plans to make more changes than he wanted for the Japan encounter.
Ideally, these would have been Schmidt’s line-ups for the first two games:
SCOTLAND (then JAPAN)
15. Rob Kearney (Jordan Larmour)
14. Keith Earls (Andrew Conway)
13. Robbie Henshaw (Garry Ringrose)
12. Bundee Aki (Chris Farrell)
11. Jacob Stockdale (Jacob Stockdale)
10. Johnny Sexton (Joey Carbery)
9. Conor Murray (Conor Murray)1. Cian Healy (Cian Healy)
2. Rory Best (Rory Best)
3. Tadhg Furlong (Tadhg Furlong)
4. Iain Henderson (Iain Henderson)
5. James Ryan (James Ryan)
6. Peter O’Mahony (CJ Stander)
7. Josh van der Flier (Josh van der Flier)
8. CJ Stander (Jack Conan)
The plan had been to spring four new faces in the Irish backline and start Conan at No.8 with Stander moving to blindside. That was the plan set out weeks ago but injuries to several key players scuttled that.
Instead, we were left with Schmidt going with Kearney (33) and a hardly match-fit Earls (32 next week) when Larmour and Conway would have been better suited to the relentless pace Japan imposed. Ringrose and Farrell put in a valiant effort in midfield while Robbie Henshaw – just one game since early August – watched on from the sidelines.
But for those crying out for the likes of Zebo and Jackson – as many have been today – they are missing the big flaw in Schmidt’s thinking. We were not expecting this sort of back-seat driving until we [hopefully] reached the knock-out stages.
For all his years of building squad depth, and his 28 months of knowing we’d play Scotland and Japan within six days, he took a huge gamble with his pack and that is what lost Ireland the game.
Ireland beat the Scots comprehensively because they dominated the collisions. They lost to Japan because the Japanese forwards left them thundered and plundered. The breakdown was all about the Brave Blossoms and their line-speed forced error after error as Ireland wilted in the heat and humidity.
The Irish pack looked gassed after 30 minutes and it was no surprise to see Schmidt bring Healy and Furlong off after only 45 minutes. Peter O’Mahony, who was not supposed to be playing, found himself on the wrong side of referee Angus Gardner at the breakdown while the Japanese were being allowed to literally sit in rucks to slow them down. Schmidt may have been jolted by the loss of Conan on the morning of his team selection but Ruddock or Tadhg Beirne should have started.
Rory Best played a full 80 minutes against Scotland and he was way down on productivity and bite, yet stayed out there for 61 minutes. Likewise for Henderson, who made it to the 66th minute in spirit but the body had long since flagged.
We were left with the sorry image of James Ryan, our young talisman, out on his feet in the closing five minutes with nothing left in the tank but fumes. Three times in the final five minutes he took the ball standing still and was pummelled back.
Schmidt was banking on his old reliables in the pack to give him a big 50-60 minutes and was hoping the bench would burn off the last of the Japanese challenge. After 61 minutes, though, Ireland were 16-12 and the hosts were growing bigger and bolder as history beckoned.
For all those that through out the names Zebo, Madigan, Jackson and more, seriously ask yourself how they would have been able to turn the tide. This game was primarily lost up front. The lads that opted to move abroad, or took active, regrettable roles in events that conspired to send them packing, knew the IRFU stance then and they know it now. Play your club rugby abroad and you won’t play for the Test team.
Schmidt will make a raft of changes now as Russia are up in just five days time (coming up fast on four).
His best-laid plans were hindered by injuries, a belief that his frontline forwards could take the fight to two decent teams in a short window and by trying to fight rapid-fire fire with fire.
This was surely a game for Ireland to win the way they have won so many games over the last four years – since the last World Cup disaster. Instead of winning ugly, though, the went to mash the accelerator and found their engine was flat.
WATCH THE IRELAND Vs. JAPAN HIGHLIGHTS HERE:
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