Leinster's second-half collapse against Wasps yesterday has left them requiring some serious assistance if they are to avoid a difficult quarter-final trip.
The 20-20 draw with Wasps in Coventry yesterday was, thankfully, enough to ensure Leinster's participation in European rugby when the club game reignites after the Six Nations, but the failure to capitalise on a 20-6 half-time advantage looks set to be costly in terms of securing a quarter-final tie in Dublin.
As they stand now the five pool winners are ranked as follows, with the three leading runners-up also qualifying (*still to play):
Pool winners
Racing Metro 24 points
Toulon 22
Leinster 20
Clermont* 18
Toulouse* 16
Runners Up
Northampton 19
Wasps 18
Saracens* 17
Bath* 15
Leicester 13
Leinster are currently ranked third but are certain to fall behind the winner of this afternoon's Clermont-Saracens Pool 1 clash at the Stade Marcel-Michelin. Even a draw would drop Leinster one spot as Clermont would equal Leinster's 20-point haul with a points difference of plus-48 against Leinster's plus-47.
That leaves the outcome of Pool 4 to decide Leinster's fate. Leaders Toulouse travel to winless Montpellier knowing a bonus-point victory would move them ahead of the Irish province, a victory which would almost certainly see Matt O'Connor's side heading to the Stade Toulousain on the first weekend in April.
Should Toulouse fail to claim the four tries needed, Leinster could still be overtaken by Bath, who host Glasgow at the Rec. A bonus-point win of 15 points or more would be enough for the English side, but Glasgow are also chasing a last-eight runners-up spot so will be no pushovers.
