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ESPN Luck index reveals ‘luckiest’ and ‘unluckiest’ Premier League teams
Published 16:16 7 Aug 2018 BST
Updated 16:24 7 Aug 2018 BST
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ESPN's Luck index has identified Manchester United as the 'luckiest' team in the Premier League and Liverpool as the 'unluckiest' team in the top flight of English football.
The ESPN Luck Index is a comprehensive research project commissioned by ESPN in partnership with Intel, carried out by the University of Bath, to examine how the Premier League would look if luck were not a factor. ESPN identified nine parameters that would categorically have a profound effect on a football match and derived from a team being unlucky or lucky.
• The nine factors were:
o Incorrectly awarded goal (offside, foul in build-up, etc)
o Incorrectly disallowed goal (offside, handball that wasn’t, etc)
o Incorrectly awarded and converted penalty
o Incorrectly awarded and converted free kick
o Penalty not awarded that should have been
o Incorrect red card
o Red card that should have been
o Goal scored outside of allotted time
o Deflected goal (not scored without deflection)
Manchester United were identified as the luckiest team and should have had six fewer points than they did according to the index, leading to a fourth-place finish instead of second, while Liverpool Liverpool should have been 12 points better off than their final league total of 75 points.
"The ESPN Luck Index powered by Intel analysed more than 150 incidents throughout the season, and used data ranging from recent form and team strength to game state and home advantage," said University of Bath assistant professor Thomas Curran.
"Then we simulated each game thousands of times to model how it should have turned out - it is one of the most detailed pieces of research we have ever conducted."
'Luck Index' simulated table 2017-18
| Team | Revised Points Total | Points Adjustment |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 97 | -3 |
| Liverpool | 87 | +12 |
| Tottenham | 77 | 0 |
| Manchester United | 75 | -6 |
| Arsenal | 71 | +8 |
| Chelsea | 70 | 0 |
| Burnley | 50 | -4 |
| Newcastle | 48 | +4 |
| Brighton | 46 | +6 |
| Everton | 44 | -5 |
| Crystal Palace | 42 | -2 |
| West Ham | 41 | -1 |
| Watford | 41 | 0 |
| Leicester | 40 | -7 |
| Southampton | 40 | +4 |
| Bournemouth | 38 | -6 |
| Stoke | 37 | +4 |
| Huddersfield | 37 | 0 |
| Swansea | 34 | +1 |
| West Brom | 33 | +2 |
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