All signs point to Kerry victory but there’s hope for Mayo yet

Mayo’s results over the last year or two have been so up and down that you really don’t know where to start when analysing them as they face what even in a relative slump by their own standards, are one of the two kingpins of football, Kerry.

On one hand, we can point to the fact Mayo underwhelmed in the league this year and have needed three replays/extra time to get past sides ranked ninth, tenth and 21^st in the GAA adapted ELO scale, and have been beaten by Galway, a side ranked eighth. All the while Kerry have brushed two of the same opponents aside with ease. On the other hand, we can point to the fact that the champions of the last three years, Dublin twice and Kerry once, have needed a replay to beat them on each occasion. By that rationale, they have to be in with a shout. The question is, which Mayo will turn up? When all is said and done, however, the fact remains that none of the current generation of Mayo footballers have beaten Kerry in championship football. We have to start from the default position that Kerry are favourites. KERRY POSSESSION All figures point to the fact that, similar to when they’ve played Dublin, Mayo will have to prevent Kerry from gaining primary possession on kick-outs. Broken down from both sides, we have to assume that Mayo are unlikely to prevent Kerry from scoring if they have the ball – in any part of the field. Kerry’s figures when they’ve attacked into a blanket defence have been immense, alluding to the best technical players and thinkers in the game. Against Cork, they scored an impressive 1-15 from 31 attacks into a blanket defence, a 58 percent attack to point ratio in the most difficult attacking scenario. In terms of a purer figure relating to breaking down blanket defences, they’re top of the country – scoring points off short kick-outs, even where the kick-out hasn’t been hit quickly. Based on the Munster final against Cork and All-Ireland quarter final with Galway and this year’s league final and last year’s semi-final with Dublin, they’ve scored a total of 1-16 from 31 short kick-outs, a 61 percent kick to point ratio. In fact, even where they haven’t got the short kick-out off quickly, they’ve had off the charts short kick-out to score figures with 1-13 from 26 kicks and only two points conceded on the first turnover. The short kick is played with 08.15 on the clock And they’ve earned a scoring free 22 seconds later That’s an immense profit of 1-11 from 26 kick-outs, coming in at a 53 percent net profit from a figure that for most teams run between “negative” and twenty percent profit at most. Yes, in terms of raw technical ability, they’re better than Dublin. HOW DO MAYO STOP THIS THREAT? The bad news for Mayo fans who think that their replay demolition of Roscommon is evidence that they’ve turned a corner is this – even in this game, from the six Roscommon slow, short kick-outs where they didn’t kick the ball aimlessly into Mayo hands, Roscommon scored three points, kicked two more very scoreable shots wide, and were turned over just once. Mayo have 15 behind the ball on the kick-out But Roscommon run at them And kick a point So, even during their replay annihilation of Roscommon, Mayo have shown defensive frailties when sides “pick and poke” against them, even where they’ve got their whole team behind the ball. Combining Kerry’s scoring rate in this regard and Mayo’s previous frailties, by the look of things, Mayo are simply going to have to prevent Kerry from getting off short kick-outs and win more than their fair share of long ones. THE KICK-OUTS On one hand, the likely Kerry midfield combination of David Moran and Anthony Maher is ideal for Mayo. It allows them to get all of the positives from playing Aidan or Séaumus O’Shea at midfield alongside Tom Parsons, knowing they won’t be outrun. The flip side is that if the aforementioned patterns hold, they’ll be relying on beating these twin towers on high ball. Aidan O’Shea versus Anthony Maher competing on high kick-outs is the proverbial unstoppable force meeting an immovable object. Presumably, each side will battle to get the short kicks off. If there’s a major positive pointer for Mayo from the Roscommon replay it’s that they were back to their best compared to playing Dublin in both 2015 and 2016 when they choked off the short kick-out supply line. If Mayo can prevent Kerry from getting off the short kick-out, they’re in with a chance. If they don’t, forget about it. THE BREAKS Based on previous patterns, the key to a Mayo success would be winning Kerry’s kick-outs, if they can force them long to begin with. This is where Kerry were massacred by Dublin in last year’s semi-final, losing 6/12 on their own long kick-outs and conceding six points directly from those twelve. Inversely, it’s where Mayo have made hay against every top ten side they’ve faced in championship football in the last twelve months (except Galway who they drew even with in net scores), and massacred Sligo, Clare and Roscommon. Here’s the next Mayo problem, Kerry have clearly learned their lessons from the Dublin game last year. Whereas sides typically lose significantly more than 50/50 off breaks on their own long kick-outs, Kerry have worked immensely on this since last August. In two league games against Dublin this year, they’ve come in at eight won and eight lost off their own breaks. They’ve won eight to zero on breaks off Dublin’s kicks. Kerry dominate the break winning positions on Dublin’s kicks And have clearly been schooled on competing the breaks off their own This is added to the fact that in Brian Kelly, Kerry have drafted in a keeper with an eye as good as Stephen Cluxton’s, and a boot not far off it. Mayo will have their work cut out to prevent Kerry from getting primary possession either from short kicks or from breaks on long ones. Is there any hope for Mayo at all? MAYO’S STRENGTH AND KERRY’S WEAKNESS The big elephant in the corner for Kerry is that their defence has been ropey this year. Galway cut them open all too easily for goal chances in the quarters and when Cork “picked and poked” their way through their defence, as opposed to trying to play long passes in, they scored seven points from ten attacks in the first half of the Munster final. David Moran and Anthony Maher don’t have the pace to stop pacey runners and since Tomás and Mark O’Sé have retired, the proportion of “Grade 3 Score Concessions” (where no defender had to be taken on for the score to be kicked) which Kerry are conceding, has increased radically. There are no better men than Lee Keegan, Patrick Durcan, Colm Boyle, Keith Higgins and Kevin McLoughlin (assuming he roams) to take the ball of the shoulder in the middle third and exploit this defensive frailty. All patterns have shown that Mayo take on and beat individual opponents, man-on-man, significantly less than Dublin, Kerry or Tyrone, but they compensate by topping the table with regards breaking the line by taking the ball off the shoulder at pace. A goal and eleven points of their total of 1-29 in the two All-Ireland finals last year came off the back of breaking the line by taking the ball off the shoulder. Colm Boyle takes the ball of the shoulder And breaks the line before being fouled While it raises question marks about their capacity against sides who don’t fall into this trap (like Galway or Monaghan), all evidence to date suggests that collectively, Kerry are far less efficient than these two sides in this defensive regard. If Mayo can beat Kerry for the first time in 21 years in championship football, my guess is that they’ll need to score at least eight or nine points by breaking the line taking the ball off the shoulder. CONCLUSION All things considered, you have to fancy Kerry. Can Mayo do it? Yes – but patterns suggest the following -

1. A) They’ll simply have to prevent Kerry from getting off short kick-outs and win more than 50/50 on Kerry’s long ones.
2. B) Equally, they’ll have to get their own off short or else turn the table on Kerry and out-field them or not get fleeced on the breaks, as most sides have been by Kerry this year.
3. C) Even then, they’ll have to absolutely minimise the amount of unnecessary scoreable frees they’ve been conceding which has plagued them this year.
4. D) Also, their shot to point ratio will have to be up where it’s been in recent games as opposed to where it was earlier in the championship.
5. E) They’ll need to break the line off the shoulder, which requires an element of defensive naivety on the part of the opposition, as well as attacking intelligence.

Even if they get four of those elements right, but allow Kerry possession on their own kick-outs, patterns suggest they’ll concede heavily. If they can manoeuvre to choke that off, they’ll still need at least three of the other four elements to go their way. It’s not terribly unlikely, but all thing considered, I’d put it at less than a 25 percent chance, a way off the 9/4 being offered by the bookies. I’d fancy Kerry, quite possibly by more than five points. Stephen O'Meara is creator and founder of www.gaaprostats.com, statistical and video analysis software created specifically for Gaelic football and hurling.