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Does spending in the transfer market improve your chance of survival?

Published 20:20 2 May 2019 BST

Updated 20:20 2 May 2019 BST

Jack O'Toole
Does spending in the transfer market improve your chance of survival?

Homesport

It's a tricky business surviving in the Premier League.

Fulham spent €112 million last summer and were relegated to the Championship with five games still remaining in the season. Norwich City secured their promotion to the Premier League for next season with a 2-1 win over Blackburn Rovers last weekend and the club's sporting director Stuart Webber has already told Sky Sports News that the Canaries will be one of the favourites to face relegation next season.
"We should be favourites to go down because we'll have the lowest budget and we'll have the lowest transfer funds available," said Webber. "It'll be low, probably one of the lowest ever spent in the competition. I don't want to put a figure on it but it'll be low."
Webber cites paying off training ground debts as well as paying for past mistakes as reason for low funds this summer but we ask the question how much does spending correlate with safety? Over the past few years we've seen that the highest spending club in Europe's top leagues have generally turned that expenditure into domestic success but what about the teams looking to survive? Can you buy your safety? We look back at the last five seasons of the Championship and look to see if the three promoted teams have been able to spend their way to safety. Over the last five seasons, just once has there been a campaign where all three teams have survived their promotion; 2017/18 - Newcastle United F.C., Brighton & Hove Albion Football Club and Huddersfield Town A.F.C. Each of the three clubs spent over €44m during the summer and of the last 15 sides to be promoted just eight have survived their first season in the Premier League. Of the eight teams to survive, six teams spent at least €40m and at least four spent over €55m. Fulham are the only team of the last five seasons to spend over €55m in a season and be relegated. Leicester (€22m) and Bournemouth (€35m) are the only two clubs to spend under €40m in their first season after being promoted and survive. The six teams that were promoted and were relegated again the following season spent the following: Fulham (€112m), Middlesbrough (€47.95m), Hull City (€40m), Norwich City (€47.55m), Burnley (€12.62m) and QPR (€43.54m) with 18th placed Cardiff City spending €51.2m this season. Fulham seem to be the anomaly in that teams that clear the €55m mark in spending generally survive (4/5 teams) while of the 10 teams that spent under €55m, only four survived. Leicester and Bournemouth prove that you can get away with a lesser budget and survive but for the most part it's a dice roll for clubs that fail to break that €55m barrier. 2018/19 season - Promoted teams: Wolves, Cardiff, Fulham.  Wolves:  Signings:  [caption id="attachment_200083" align="alignnone" width="414"] Source: Transfermarkt[/caption] Fees: €112.25m League position: 7th Cardiff Signings:  Fees: €51.2m League position: 18th Fulham  Signings:  Fees: €112m League position: 19th 2017/18 season - Promoted teams: Newcastle United F.C., Brighton & Hove Albion Football Club, Huddersfield Town A.F.C. Newcastle United F.C. Signings:  Fees: €44.30m  League Position: 10th Brighton & Hove Albion Football Club Signings:  Fees: €64.50m League position: 15th Huddersfield Town  Signings: Fees: €56.75m  League position: 16th 2016/17 season - Promoted teams: Burnley F.C., Middlesbrough F.C., Hull City. Burnley Signings:  Fees: €45.6m  League position: 16th Middlesbrough F.C Signings:  Fees: €47.95m  League position: 19th Hull City Signings:  Fees: €40m  League position: 18th 2015/16 season - Promoted teams: A.F.C. Bournemouth, Watford F.C., Norwich City F.C A.F.C. Bournemouth Signings: Fees: €55.11m  League position: 16th Watford F.C. Signings:  Fees: €83.53m  League position: 13th Norwich City F.C Signings: Fees: €47.55m  League position: 19th 2014/15 season - Promoted teams: Leicester City F.C., Burnley F.C., Queens Park Rangers F.C Leicester City F.C. Signings: Fees: €22.86m  League position: 14th Burnley F.C. Signings: Fees: €12.62m  League position: 19th Queens Park Rangers F.C Signings: Fees: €43.54m  League position: 20th

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