Wales were predictable two years ago but they were more effective at carrying out their coach’s game-plan.
Living over in England, I have been surrounded by stories of England bouncing back from their loss to Ireland. Stuart Lancaster says England are still in it but this weekend’s match between Ireland and Wales should settle that. I expect Ireland to beat Wales, for the third time in a row, but it will not be easy; it never is in Cardiff.
The most positive part of Ireland’s winning start to the championship is the fact they have improved with each game. England are fourth in the world and Ireland did not play all too well against them, yet they comfortably closed out the game. Joe Schmidt – the perfectionist that he is – will see room for lots of improvements.
There was a story out of Wales, this week, about only six Irish players making the Welsh starting line-up. I am not sure what Warren Gatland or Shaun Edwards have to say on the matter but that is a quite arrogant suggestion and not based on form.
Wales are a predictable team. Most Gatland sides are. The difference is, they perform that limited game-plan very efficiently. That level of efficiency has dropped in recent years, however, and they have been found out on a couple of occasions.
Ireland’s high work-rate in defence should limit the Welsh power game. If Johnny Sexton and Robbie Henshaw can front up again, it will deny Wales getting on the front-foot through the one dimensional Jamie Roberts.
Roberts has not fared too well in Top 14 rugby. I witnessed it during my playing career – once you go from a team that is built around you and try to settle into a new line-up, it is very difficult to replicate the success.
Reputation > form
Both Roberts and Jonathan Davies have good reputations at Test level but, if either of them were not fit, I do not see who else you would put in there, to be honest. There is a lack of depth there. They are token selections, I feel. Picked on reputation.
Davies has beaten/evaded the most defenders of all the Welsh players in the Six Nations but he is also guilty of the most missed tackles. Roberts has the most ball carries but, again, that is going back to Gatland’s game-plan of running it straight up and trying to get over the gainline.
We are in a World Cup year and the games are getting ticked off. I do not see Joe Schmidt changing his the midfield partnership of Henshaw and Jared Payne now. They are his guys. We can see that with the decision not to select Gordon D’Arcy in the wider squad. Schmidt could use him in this championship but he is looking at the bigger picture.
Both Henshaw and Payne have solid solid and the partnership is improving with each game. The kicking game of Sexton and Conor Murray has taken a lot of the pressure off them to make those clean breaks.
Ireland have focused on that kicking game and the kick-chase – a long neglected aspect of the game – as ways to attack teams and retain possession. They view it as another set-piece.
Murray and Sexton are crucial to Ireland’s success. Murray’s opposite number, the Welsh out-half Rhys Webb, has been their best backline player in this tournament. He has made the most line breaks and is someone who likes to run the ball. Wales are quite cute at the ruck and Alun Wyn Jones often holds onto a defender, or two, to create a gap for his No.9.
Murray has 269 passes in this championship while Webb has 178. That shows one guy that likes to spread the ball out wide [Murray] and another that likes to take it on.
Wales out-half Dan Biggar has developed his game in the last couple of years and has finally won the trust of the senior players around him. He has become a real leader for them. If he has a big game, Wales will be right in this match. However, it remains to be seen how he will hold up to the pressure. Peter O’Mahony is a guy that likes a bit of niggle and I expect him to get after Biggar as much as possible.
I expect Ireland to win but, to do that, they need to maintain their discipline and focus on those one-percenters. It is a big ask, to go to the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff, in a huge atmosphere, and beat a Welsh side still competing for the title. History suggests they do not lose at home that often and they have already slipped up there to England. They were poor against the Scots but did well over in France.
How long Ireland can hold on for – and keep that defensive work-rate up – will be key. If they can stay with Wales until they run out of puff, they should be fine, and should make it three wins in a row over their old rivals.
*Paul Warwick played 167 times for Connacht and Munster, with home he won a Heineken Cup with in 2008. He was twice capped by the Barbarians. Today, he is part of the coaching staff at Worcester Warriors.
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