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Published 15:58 8 Feb 2023 GMT
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Tadhg Furlong of Ireland is tackled by Peato Mauvaka of France during the 2022 Six Nations. (Photo by Seb Daly/Sportsfile)[/caption]
'Without rain, France has a 40% chance of winning. With rain, 15%'Two things jump out here. First, that Ireland will be relying on inclement conditions to have a better chance of beating France. This is dismissive of the attacking threats that this Ireland team possess. They were top try-scorers by a distance in last season's Six Nations and shredded the All Blacks defence in Dunedin and Wellington. Ireland can roll their sleeves up and win through tough, physical rugby - see the November victories over Australia and South Africa - but they showed against Wales how ruthless they can be in scoring positions when they get motoring. Second, how the French reporters still side with Ireland despite their team winning last year's Grand Slam and being on a 13-match victory streak. A listener to the live stream of the show had asked for percentage chances of beating Ireland with and without rain. If it rains, they do not fancy Les Bleus' chances. If it is clear, they reckon France are in the fight. Our course, there is always some form of recency and local bias. Those predictions came after France had struggled to overcome Italy, in Rome. Over in Ireland, meanwhile, a Virgin Media poll had Ireland getting 76% of the vote when viewers were asked who would emerge with the title.

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