With a stacked card like UFC 194 it can be hard to find value without maximising risk, so we’ve found five bets that should give you the best bang for your buck.
Jump on Jacare
As gifted an athlete as Yoel Romero is, I’m not convinced about his chin or his cardio. Tim Kennedy was unlucky not to be awarded the TKO victory after the Soldier of God took his sweet time getting back up from his stool between rounds and his sole loss came by way of knockout to Rafael Cavalcante back in 2011.
While he may not have Feijao’s knockout power, I believe Jacare’s stand-up is better than Kennedy’s. He has the ability to send the Cuban to the canvas and from there, I back him to sink in his 17th submission victory of his career.
Believe in Gunni
I got some backlash for telling everyone to put money on Gunnar Nelson to beat Brandon Thatch at UFC 189. There were very generous odds for the adopted Irishman, most likely because he was coming off a loss to Rick Story.
Admittedly, this is a much tougher fight because Demian Maia is so ridiculously good on the ground, and you get the feeling Nelson’s going to want to test out his own jiu-jitsu game against the veteran.
However, the best BJJ practitioner on the continent of Europe also has a devastating stand-up game, and I feel that’s going to give him the edge.
The “Dead Cert” Accumulator
There’s no such thing as a “dead cert” in this sport, but there are four bets you can make on the card that are way more likely to come off than others.
Pretty much everyone expects Urijah Faber to beat Frankie Saenz and Kevin Lee to come up trumps against Leanardo Santos. However, both these fighters are so dynamic that I’d recommend avoiding choosing the method of victory.
All six of Tecia Torres’ fights have gone the distance while six of her opponent Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger’s fights have gone to the judges’ scorecards. The likelihood is, we’ll see all three rounds of that fight.
The last one is a little bit risky as it involves two undefeated fighters in Colby Covington and Warlley Alves. If you have faith in Covington using his powerhouse wrestling to get the victory, then putting your money on the fight going the distance is your best bet. He won’t want to trade with the Brazilian who has his number in this area, so expect him to try to grind out a win.
Fourfold accumulator on: Urijah Faber to win @1/7 + Kevin Lee to win @1/6 + Warlley Alves v Colby Covington to go the distance @10/13 + Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger v Tecia Torres to go the distance @2/5 should see you double your money.
Back Mystic Mac
They say he’s all talk, but he keeps backing it up.
So if you have the same confidence in Conor McGregor that he has in himself, put your money where his mouth is and go for the knockout victory.
— Bri the F1 Guy (@BrianF1Man) July 12, 2015
Betting on the champion, especially a long-standing champion such as Jose Aldo is never a stupid idea. If you feel that the Brazilian’s advanced fundamentals will trump McGregor’s flashy game and derail his hype train, then this is the bet for you.