Mayo are on track to claim a fifth successive provincial title, but are they good enough to finally go all the way this year?
Conor Heneghan of JOE.ie says: YES.
Boil it down to exactly what Mayo have to do to win an All-Ireland title and it’s very easy to say they’re in the mix to win the Sam Maguire this year.
Essentially, they have to win their next four games. If they win a Connacht Final against either Roscommon or Sligo, they’ll face one of the teams to emerge from the qualifier draw in the quarter-finals.
Granted, it can always be dangerous facing a team with momentum, but at this stage it looks highly likely that winning a provincial title will mean avoiding Dublin, Donegal and Kerry in the last eight, so the traditional route is definitely the way to go to the quarters.
Get through that and all they have to do is take out two of the best teams in the country to finally lay claim on Sam Maguire and put an end to the most storied famine in the history of the GAA.
Easy, right? Of course not, but then the words ‘Mayo’ and ‘easy’ rarely belong in the same sentence.
It’s not hard to detect a little more doubt about Mayo’s capacity to win an All-Ireland title this season, even amongst their own supporters, of which I am one.
It’s also not hard to see why. When a manager as talented and admired as James Horan leaves his post having turned Mayo from flaky also-rans into an established member of Gaelic Football’s elite, it’s natural that supporters would fear for the future.
It was practically the exact same situation in Donegal after Jim McGuinness left and the men from the hills endured the same mixed league campaign that Mayo did.
Donegal, though, had the chance to prove almost immediately after the league that they were still a force to be reckoned with when beating Tyrone.
Now, after a comprehensive and very impressive victory over Armagh, it’s even been suggested that they might move to an even higher level under Rory Gallagher.
Mayo didn’t have the same luxury as Donegal and instead had to endure a ridiculously long wait before playing their first Championship game of the summer last weekend. It didn’t help matters.
Mayo is as football-mad if not more football-mad than any other county in the country, but as Páidí Ó Sé hinted at when referring to Kerry fans as the “roughest bunch of fu**ing animals you could ever deal with,” that fanaticism can manifest itself in a number of different ways.
While Mayo waited and waited for Galway, doubts began to set in in the county.
Rumours of fallouts in the camp started and began to fester. All Mayo could do was keep quiet and wait for their chance to show that while new generals were in charge, everything was still in order.
The performance against Galway wasn’t of the standard needed to win an All-Ireland but it didn’t need to be. The green and red have been peaking for late summer for the last few years and five weeks before the Connacht Final allows them ample time to do that again this year.
What Noel Connelly and Pat Holmes did need was a performance to illustrate they’ll be putting their own stamp on the team and not just copying Horan’s blueprint, impressive and successful as it was.
The changes, from the limited amount we saw, are not radical, but evident nonetheless.
They haven’t uncovered a new inside forward to accompany Cillian O’Connor but the placing of Aidan O’Shea on the edge of the square opens up a world of possibilities.
There’s also evidence that Mayo’s half-back line won’t be as cavalier as they have been in recent years and will instead provide greater protection for a full-back line that’s been crying out for it.
The concession of two preventable goals against Galway shows that the defensive system needs refining, but Mayo have time on their side to work on something that really is a major concern.
Quite apart from finding a ‘marquee forward’ in fact, (if Cillian O’Connor isn’t a marquee forward then who is?) the main item on the agenda of the Mayo management should be to stop conceding costly goals at important times in big games, the major cause of their three defining defeats in recent years (Donegal 2012, Dublin 2013, Kerry 2014).
And if they’ve to upset a few people along the way, as Lee Keegan did on Sunday, then so be it.
Kerry did likewise and probably worse against Mayo in Limerick last year and the complaints had long since dried up by the time they were toasting yet another All-Ireland title. Donegal and Dublin are no choirboys either. Mayo have been known as nice for long enough.
Looking at Mayo’s credentials, it’s hard to see them as anything but All-Ireland contenders.
Their squad is laden with players who have experience at the very highest level. They have plenty of depth.
They have leaders and in Aidan O’Shea, they have a player who seems destined to win Footballer of the Year sooner rather than later.
They have a support base that would go to Kathmandu to watch them play if they had to. They are positively brimming with desire.
Sure, they might come up short again this year but they’re going to take some stopping.
Conán Doherty says: NO.
We used to do a club-by-club season preview supplement in Derry and, after 32/33 teams, you were stretching your luck. So you’d fill the rest of it in: If team x want to win more matches, they need to tighten up their backline and score more points and goals, and so on.
The most obvious statements ever.
Sometimes, though, you got lucky and it was relevant. In this case, it’s definitely relevant.
Yes, Mayo should tighten up their backline and attack better. Everyone should. But some teams get away with it better than others.
It’s almost a myth that the Westerners are devoid of a marquee forward. Almost. Just almost.
Cillian O’Connor is one of the finest players in the land but he’s of a different ilk than someone who is going out and winning games off the back of nothing when the team is playing badly.
Conor McManus dragged Monaghan through a stinker of a performance against Cavan only a few weeks ago. That’s what guys like that do.
Bernard Brogan won Dublin an All-Ireland against Mayo back in 2013 when the side were probably outplayed by the Connacht champions. Michael Murphy, James O’Donoghue, guys who are proving to be game-winners that don’t need anything else but a ball in their hands. They don’t require circumstances or even the team, just possession.
No-one’s denying that Mayo aren’t one of the best teams in Ireland, but an off-day they can never afford because they don’t have the firepower to see them through.
In fact, they’re the most consistent of any county in the last four years but have simply been falling short of the post.
But they do have Cillian O’Connor. He mightn’t have managed a score from play in either of the side’s All-Ireland final appearances in the last three seasons but he’s still O’Connor. He’s still a gem.
But what happens when Michael Murphy has three men marking him? His markers still struggle, that’s what happens but he’s whipped out the pitch, Paddy McBrearty steps up or the rest of the team decide to just overrun the opposition.
What happens when James O’Donoghue can’t find space like he couldn’t in last year’s final? Then Kieran Donaghy steps forward, Paul Geaney sparks magic or, you know, they can just bring Colm Cooper back from injury.
We needn’t go into Dublin’s options.
You don’t win games if you don’t score (write that down). And the most genuine All-Ireland contenders have so many different ways of scoring that it’s frightening.
But Mayo have scored plenty, too. Of the four games in the last four years that have seen them eliminated from the championship, the lowest return Mayo managed was 0-13. 0-13 would win a side like Donegal most of their matches. But Mayo aren’t Donegal either.
It’s almost as if they’re overcompensating for their alright forward line by allowing the rest of the team the freedom to attack. And it only leaves them exposed. Because, in those same four games, they’ve shipped eight goals.
Even back in defence, they have a player like Keith Higgins who would walk onto any side in the country and yet their full back line is planted like sitting ducks for anyone to take pot shots at. Sooner or later, those shots are fatal.
And you wonder, would a new system designed to protect their back door only close their front door as well? Because, going forward, they rely on their system and closing up shop would inhibit their attacking options. Catch 22.
It’s not a catch the very finest sides have to worry about.
For Mayo to win the All-Ireland, they need to tighten up their backline and get better in attack…
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