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Published 19:17 28 Jul 2017 BST
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Galway, for example, were clearly systematically set up to stop this. Even up to Keith Higgins’ 26th-minute red card, albeit into the wind, Mayo had scored three points and one somewhat lucky goal which came off the back of the ball rebounding off the upper post.
From start to finish in the Galway versus Mayo game, Galway didn’t fall for a textbook “one-two three” all game long. Mayo struggled. Mayo are set up to execute the “one-two-three” line-break
Monaghan are also one of the most methodical sides in the country when it comes to not being drawn into being beaten by the “one-two-three”. In the national league this year, Mayo struggled, and were beaten, putting just 12 points on the board.
It remains to be seen how Roscommon cope with the “one-two-three” as Galway don’t/didn’t particularly apply it against them. Roscommon’s high pressing game lends itself to being caught out by it if a given player doesn’t have the head to make the split-second decision to drop off the man at the right time.
When Roscommon played Galway they manufactured the perfect blend of pressing high up the field at the right time, with knowing when to drop off en masse at the correct time. Crucially, they mastered the correctly timed foul in the middle third while delaying the opposition from taking the free, allowing them to get more men behind the ball.
If they can impose this on Mayo, yet not get sucked into the Mayo “one-two-three”, which is looking more and more like Mayo’s life-blood, there’s every chance that this game will be balanced on a knife edge.
If they get all of these things right, they should keep man-on-man Mayo attacks to a minimum, and there’s no evidence that we can expect Mayo to break Roscommon’s blanket defence with more than a 30 percent attack to score ratio.
Mayo are typically at their most devastating when they win the opposition’s long kick-out. When they win them, they like to take the ball off the shoulder at pace and attack defences that aren’t used to being exposed man-on-man.
They scored 2-3 from this source alone from the seven they won against Sligo, a massive 129 percent kick-out to point ratio and they scored two points from the four they won against Galway, a 50 percent kick-out won to point ratio.
All patterns suggest that if Roscommon go long, they’ll break even at best, and concede heavily to Mayo when they lose.
All patterns suggest they’ll simply have to get them off short.
On a dirty day on a pitch six metres narrower than Croke Park, they scored 1-2 off the back of five short kick-outs against Galway. When they get them off quickly, they attack at pace, like for their first goal that day. When they get them off slowly, they can “pick and poke” through the middle third as well as any side.
If Roscommon can get the short kick-out off, I’d be confident they have a better chance than most people expect, potentially, not far off 50 percent. If they don’t, there’s a good chance they’ll be massacred.
Mayo, however, are excellent at depriving the opposition the short kick-out, so expect a battle-royale in this regard.
Mayo’s long versus short kick-out kick to score ratio has been erratic, so it’s unclear how key it will be for them to get off short kick-outs, which David Clarke has improved hugely on this year. It’s safe assume that Roscommon will try to stop them, as against Galway.
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