Ireland have a 90 percent chance of avoiding either Germany and what would be a tough, tough second seed team to pull out of the hat.
With the Nations League group stages concluding on Tuesday night, all that was left from an Irish point of view was to watch on from afar to see whether it would be Germany or Poland that were condemned to Pot 2 where they could potentially line up an impossible group for third-seeds Ireland.
Unlike the qualifiers for 2016, there will be no playoffs for third place. The top two qualify automatically for the 2020 tournament and there will be playoffs based on the Nations League later but the fact that a team like Germany are now a second-seed country after Poland’s result against Portugal, it could spell even greater apathy for Martin O’Neill’s setup.
It means you could be looking at a group made up of a Pot 1 team and Germany – say, France and Germany, for example – and, with just two spaces up for grabs, what the would be the point, really?
The good news, though, is that the rest of Pot 2 – outside of Germany – isn’t that hot.
Pot 2 for Euro 2020 qualifying
Germany
Austria
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Czech Republic
Denmark
Iceland
Russia
Sweden
Ukraine
Wales
Yes, these are teams who would all, at present, harbour no fears whatsoever about Ireland and the way it’s going for the side who have won once in their last 10 games, the Republic wouldn’t get a whiff of a goal chance but these are countries who, in reality, a well-drilled Irish team could pip if things went right.
Ireland, as the third seeds, will be contesting with one of those countries and a tier 1 side along with fourth and fifth seeds to finish in the top two and guarantee automatic qualification for the 2020 European Championships.
And, with a 90 per cent chance of avoiding Germany, there’s also a 30 per cent chance of drawing Poland, Switzerland or England as your group’s top seeds.
Pot 1 for Euro 2020 qualifying
England
Netherlands
Portugal
Switzerland
Belgium
Croatia
France
Italy
Spain
Poland
Imagine a group where Switzerland and Bosnia & Herzegovina are the two top seeds. That could happen.
But that would also be irrelevant if the current regime stayed in place and continued the way it’s going. It wouldn’t matter who Ireland got, they’d still not have the ball, they’d still not have a shape, they’d still have Cyrus Christie in centre midfield and they’d still be clinging on for dear life hoping that Shane Duffy will score one of the two corners won at the other end.
Even if Switzerland and Bosnia were the best teams in your group, it’s very hard to see Ireland, as they are, get anywhere near qualification.
If Ireland avoid Germany, the best of the second seed teams they could draw is Denmark.
Denmark, although O’Neill does his very best to prove otherwise, are not lightyears ahead of Ireland. The Irish have potential but they need a coach to realise that. They need a plan and they need someone who is looking at ways of scoring goals rather than bemoaning the lack of a goalscorer.
If O’Neill really thinks the players he has are so futile and his management largely redundant because of how technically bad they are, why the hell is he still there?
There’s a really good chance Ireland will draw a group that they can finish in the top two of and qualify automatically for the Euros.
But there’s little chance if we get to March with the same management team still in place.
UPDATE
Martin O’Neill has since parted ways with Ireland on Wednesday morning.
