Only eight second-placed teams will qualify for the playoffs.
There are nine groups.
As it stands, Wales – who are second in Group D – would not make the playoffs. As it stands, Group D is ranked as the ninth best of all the second-placed teams in Europe.
Second-place rankings are determined by eliminating results against the team who finishes bottom of your group.
Wales, for example, have played eight games so far but their two clashes with Moldova and subsequently their six points earned against Moldova are taken out of the equation and only points against the top five of the group count.
That could change if Moldova do not finish bottom so neither position of the table above can really be calculated or confirmed until all the games are finished and the teams who’ve finished bottom of their groups are clear.
But, as it stands, Ireland would have seven games played in that ranking system already and they’d have just 10 points – that’s if they were in bloody second place to begin with.
The maximum amount of points Ireland could finish with in the second-placed table – if Moldova finish bottom of the group – would be 13 points.
That means all eight other groups would have the opportunity to finish ahead of Ireland in this table – as it stands.
All hope isn’t completely lost though.
Whilst, in the second-placed table, Bosnia – who are currently occupying the last slot – can finish with 14 points, they do have a difficult run-in.
Both Bosnia and Greece are battling it out for second place in Group H (Greece with one less point) but it’s not all plain-sailing for them.
Bosnia’s remaining games
- Belgium (h)
- Estonia (a)
Greece’s remaining games
- Cyprus (a)
- Gibraltar (h) – not relevant for second-placed standings.
If Bosnia draw with Belgium, Ireland would finish ahead of them in this scenario – assuming Ireland won their last two games and assuming Bosnia still finished second.
Belgium are also already qualified.
If Greece finish second, the maximum they can finish on – in this scenario – is 13 points, the same as Ireland and therefore goal difference would come into play.
But all these teams and points can change depending on who finishes bottom and second in each group.
Group D
It does however mean that a draw in Wales (even if it secured second place for Ireland) would probably not be good enough to bring Ireland into contention.
The injury to Bale definitely helps but finishing as a best second-place side is out of our hands at present.
Should’ve just beaten Georgia, really.
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