Sometimes sport is simply about luck.
You can plan, prepare, train and even play well in a tournament, but sometimes injury can decimate a team in one foul swoop, ala Ireland’s 2015 Rugby World Cup campaign.
It’s too early in the week to determine just how big Munster’s challenge will be this Saturday when they welcome Toulon to Thomond Park as the Irish province waits to see who will and who will not be available for this weekend’s Champions Cup quarter-final, but while the rest of us look at the potential loss of Rory Scannell, Simon Zebo and Andrew Conway as major concerns to an already depleted team, van Graan seemingly just sees a squad of players ready to go.
“The Munster way,” van Graan replied when asked about how his side would respond against Toulon in light of a growing list of casualties.
“Rugby games are won in the hearts of men. [We will] back the people of Munster to pull us through. I get goosebumps when I say things like this but sport is about doing the unthinkable, about going to where other teams aren’t prepared to go.
“When you say things like this, you really do respect the opposition because you know they might take you apart. But rugby games are 50-50 occasions, it’s the same for both teams.”
Head Coach Johann van Graan, captain @PeterOM6 and out-half @IanKeatley were speaking to the media today ahead of our Champions Cup quarter-final against Toulon in Thomond Park on Saturday afternoon. #MUNvRCT #SUAF pic.twitter.com/VuxrBhgpU3
— Munster Rugby (@Munsterrugby) March 26, 2018
Except it’s really not the same for both teams.
Toulon enter this weekend’s match with Munster fresh off of a 49-0 hiding of last year’s finalists Clermont, a win that came without Bryan Habana, Ma’a Nonu, Duane Vermeulen and a host of other internationals.
Toulon are an outlier in the fact that they can assemble an international-laden squad in any given year and they can comfortably survive injury with players that may actually be better than those that they are replacing.
Munster do not enjoy the same luxury, at least not to the same extent.
van Graan’s side could be without their entire starting back three and midfield for this weekend’s quarter-final while flankers Chris Cloete and Tommy O’Donnell have also been ruled out of the tie.
Unless van Graan starts Conor Oliver, who has impressed mightily this season, he may be tempted to switch Peter O’Mahony to openside, CJ Stander to the blindside and start either Jack O’Donoghue or Robin Copeland at number eight.
The injuries have mounted for Munster and have created a number of dilemmas across a variety of positions for van Graan, and while he and his squad have embraced a ‘next-man-up/trench’ mentality, you wonder if the task could be too tall for a province without a host of frontline players.
If Scannell, Zebo and Conway are added to an injury list that already features Cloete, O’Donnell, Chris Farrell and Six Nations Player of the Championship nominee Keith Earls, can Munster survive?
The Irish province have won three and lost two matches since the start of the Six Nations, a stark contrast from their 70% winning record before the start of this year’s tournament.
van Graan won his first five matches in charge of the province as it seemed like he would carry Rassie Erasmus’ baton around the final corner and towards the finish line. He’s lost some momentum over the past two months but should be boosted by the return of the Lions trio Conor Murray, CJ Stander and captain Peter O’Mahony.
"We've got to have the best performance of the season so far if we're going to be in with a shot."
Munster captain @PeterOM6 looks ahead to #MUNvRCT on Saturday at Thomond Park (3.15pm). #SUAF pic.twitter.com/49PYG6BTMT
— Munster Rugby (@Munsterrugby) March 27, 2018
Munster were just over 50% without the aforementioned and you would think that they would look to double down on their forwards and challenge Toulon up front, given just how many of their backs could be unavailable.
However, Munster have played with more mobility and more width under van Graan and it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to what are unenviable circumstances.
What type of game will he look to play? Who will he call on for what is the biggest game of Munster’s season? Will he change tactics for what will be the biggest game of his young coaching career?
Odds are he’ll stick to his guns.
When he was an assistant under Heyneke Meyer with the Springboks, Meyer credited him with South Africa’s transition to a more ambitious brand of rugby.
He first impressed Meyer as a video analyst with the Bulls and then grew to a point in South African Rugby where he was eventually appointed as the Springboks forwards coach under Meyer.
Interestingly, but not surprisingly given his start as a video analyst, Meyer attributed van Graan’s rise to his obsessive work ethic but also commended him for his personnel skills and his ability to build relationships with players.
van Graan has already shown some bite this week with talk of winning is in the heart, the crowd will take us through et cetera, et cetera.
It’s cliche and brash, although if ever there was a team to summon a performance based on emotion it could be this Munster side, however, the most intriguing aspect could be what this 38-year-old obsessive South African will bring to the table when he’s seemingly losing more and more chips by the day.
If he’s without his first choice 7, 11, 12, 13, 14 and 15, does he stick to his guns and encourage his players to attack and play with width and space? Or does he try and encourage his pack to take on the Toulon forwards and try and overpower the three-time champions as he tries to compensate for a backline that could be without everything except its frontline halves.
Ireland have won multiple games over the last five years where they were just a better coached team than their opposition. That’s generally an advantage when Joe Schmidt is your head coach.
Munster could be a side that outsmarts Toulon, a side that outworks their opposition, or a side that will be outgunned by a star-studded team, but this will be van Graan’s biggest test in what could be his finest hour.
A chance for him to do the unthinkable by thinking more about the how rather than the availability of the who.
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