After last week’s amazing card, the UFC are not exactly easing us into mediocrity with the level of competition on Saturday night.
The battle for superiority among our MMA nerds has reached a stalemate once more:
Darragh “The Quizmaster” Murphy: 44-27
“Bourbon” Ben Kiely: 44-27
Demian Maia (19-6) v Ryan LaFlare (11-0)
DM: I’m somewhat surprised that Demian Maia is the underdog going into this fight because I really don’t see where he will be beaten by Ryan LaFlare.
Maia’s striking has come on leaps and bounds and he’s the much bigger, stronger man after cutting his teeth at middleweight up until 2012. He’s beaten some serious contenders since his drop to 170lbs, including Dong Hyun Kim, Rick Story and Jon Fitch.
I would argue that LaFlare’s undefeated record does not earn him his status because the level of competition is clearly less than that of the Brazilian.
I think Maia’s a better boxer and better grappler (plus he’s been the 25 minutes twice in his career) and I think he’ll actually finish the New Yorker after LaFlare starts tiring with his wrestling. Maia via submission (round four).
BK: Why all the hate? This is a perfectly decent main event. You’ve got a quality undefeated wrestler making his return after a long-term injury against a veteran who has some huge scalps on his record.
LaFlare’s an unknown quantity against high-level competition, which is what makes this match-up so intriguing. I think his wrestling will be enough to nullify Maia’s striking. If he keeps his head, he should be able to earn a clinical decision victory in the lion’s den.
On a side-note, wouldn’t either fighter make a more than adequate opponent for Gunnar Nelson on the UFC 189 card? Make it happen, Shelby and co. LaFlare by decision
Erick Silva (17-5, 1NC) v Josh Koscheck (17-9)
DM: I think this will be a lot closer than Silva’s 1/5 favouritism suggests just due to the clash of styles.
Silva is an explosive fighter. If he doesn’t finish you in the first round, then he’s more than likely going to lose a decision and that plays right into the grinding wrestling style of Josh Koscheck.
That being said, I think Koscheck is simply adding a few big paydays to his bank account before he calls time on an 11-year fight career so I’d question his motivation against Silva.
I’m going to take the risk and say that Silva will rush out of the traps and catch Koscheck with a knee when the American tries to force a takedown. Silva via TKO (round 1)
BK: There aren’t many fighters out there that can lose four fights on the trot and keep their job. Koshcheck is one of them though and, let’s not sugar-coat it here, his recent performances have been dreadful.
Silva is a ball of mismanaged talent. He’s got the requisite skills to beat just about anyone on his day, but his wild, relentless style has meant that he has yet to get back-to-back victories in the UFC. However, I think he’ll rectify this against Cash-cheque.
If Koshcheck keeps taking big payday fights against all-out murderers he’s going to wind up slurring his words and wearing nappies before he hits 40. Silva via TKO (Round 1)
Leonardo Santos (13-3-1) v Tony Martin (9-2)
DM: What usually happens when two elite caliber grapplers meet? A lacklustre kickboxing match, of course.
Leonardo Santos and Tony Martin have 15 submission victories between them but I’m going to let this fight prediction rest on the experience and home advantage of the Brazilian.
Also Santos has proved himself able to hang with serious the bigger names of the lightweight division, after drawing against Norman Parke and a earning a decision victory over Efrain Escudero in his last outing. He hasn’t lost since 2009 so let the Santos momentum continue. Santos via decision
BK: Santos got found out against Norman Parke. The Bushmill’s fighter had his number over three rounds and the Brazilian had to rely on a dodgy point-deduction to get a draw in his home country.
Martin has a good chance if he get this fight to the ground, but getting there might be an issue considering Santos’ wrestling acumen. Santos is nothing spectacular and it won’t be long until his pristine UFC record gets sullied by a higher-level fighter, but he should getthe win here. Santos by decision
Amanda Nunes (9-4) v Shayna Baszler (15-9)
DM: If I had to put money on picking Fight of the Night for this amusingly unremarkable card, it would be this women’s bantamweight clash all day long.
Don’t get me wrong with this pick because I think Shayna Baszler is an absolute animal … but I think that she might just be past her sell-by date.
Meanwhile Amanda Nunes is a finishing machine, not requiring the judges for any of her nine pro victories. If anybody bothered to watch the prelims of last week’s UFC 185 and saw the vicious kickboxing of Germaine de Randamie, well Nunes actually destroyed de Randamie on the feet in 2013 which doesn’t bode well for Baszler. Nunes via TKO (round 1)
BK: Shayna Baszler looks like the archetypal has-been. Ever since she joined the UFC, it has become apparent that she has failed to evolve with the sport. She’s a great submission artist but is just slightly behind the elite fighters in the division in pretty much every other aspect of the sport.
Nunes has got heavy hands and I fully expect her to shatter Baszler’s glass chin. One of the Four Horsewomen could be getting her pink slip this weekend. Nunes via TKO (Round 2)
Gilbert Burns (9-0) v Alex Oliveira (10-1-1, 1NC)
DM: It’s very difficult to call anything a “sure thing” on a Brazilian fight card but this is as close as it gets to UFC Fight Night 62 as there’s a very real sense of Oliveira getting thrown to the wolves for his promotional debut.
Oliveira has nothing more than a puncher’s chance against Burns when the two Rio natives meet but I don’t see him catching Durinho.
I foresee Oliveira opening with a wild exchange but Burns grabs a body lock, drags the fight to the ground and armbars him en route to his sixth submission victory. Burns via submission (round 1)
BK: Alex Oliveira stepped into this one on short notice after Josh Thomson pulled out with injury.With all due respect to Oliveira, he’s nowhere near on the same level as the former Strikeforce champion. It should be an easy night’s work for Burns who keeps getting better with each bout. Burns via TKO (Round 1)
Godofredo Castro (11-3) v Andre Fili (14-2)
DM: This is a pick ’em to the point that I almost don’t want to choose a victor here.
Pepey is a bit like the Inter of MMA insofar as you never have any idea what to expect of the Brazilian. He’s got a questionable chin which, coupled with the home crowd pressure, could spell an early night for him.
I think Fili is a tre prospect at 145lbs and, despite coming unstuck against Max Holloway, I see big things in the American’s future. He also has one of the best nicknames in MMA as Touchy goes so well with Fili. Difficult to call but, if I have to, I’ll take my chances with a Fili win. Fili via decision
BK: I’m a big fan of Fili, and that’s not just because he’s got one of the best nicknames in the promotion. He’s a very promising, young fighter at 145 lbs, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see him break the top 15 in the next few years.
Pepey’s erratic striking style will make this a pleasant viewing and means that he has every chance of connecting and getting the victory. However, I think Fili’s just too well-rounded and too intelligent as a fighter to get caught. Fili via TKO (Round 2)
