Anything can happen in the fight game.
It would be foolish to outright say this is what’s going to happen over the next year and a half.
But we’ve looked at all the options and permutations in terms of what’s on the table for Conor McGregor in his next three fights and this is how we see things panning out.
July 2016 (UFC 200)
Despite coming unstuck against Nate Diaz, Conor McGregor is still undoubtedly the biggest draw at the UFC’s disposal so they will want the Irishman front and centre for their monumental UFC 200 card.
Having looked somewhat out of place at welterweight at UFC 196, McGregor will likely be forced into dropping down to his regular home of 145 lbs for the July 9 card.
There are only two options on the table for him and they are former long-time champion Jose Aldo and perennial contender Frankie Edgar.
We think the right thing to do would be to give Edgar the shot that he’s waited three years for, after falling just short in his first crack at the featherweight title.
What we think will happen is a rematch with Jose Aldo and here’s why.
In McGregor’s head, he has the beating of Aldo after he knocked him out in just 13 seconds last December. So he and his camp will likely view him as the more beatable opponent than Edgar.
The Diaz defeat has taken some of the gloss off of McGregor’s image but going 0-2 would all but destroy it so ‘The Notorious’ needs a win next.
The UFC don’t want their biggest cash-cow to be killed so they should push the Aldo fight as it makes sense for all parties, except for poor Frankie Edgar.
December 2016
With a win over Aldo at UFC 200, McGregor will have his eyes on the lightweight division once more because, as he gets older, that cut to 145 lbs isn’t going to get any easier.
It should be pointed out that there are many different permutations of what could happen at 155 lbs before December but we see the next contender at lightweight being Khabib Nurmagomedov (if he beats Tony Ferguson on April 16), Eddie Alvarez or Nate Diaz.
The likeliest option there is Nurmagomedov and we see him beating Ferguson and being matched up with Rafael dos Anjos at UFC 200.
Nurmagomedov has a win over RDA which makes that fight more intriguing than any other title fight at lightweight that doesn’t involve Conor McGregor.
The UFC will be salivating at the prospect of the winner of RDA vs. Nurmagomedov facing off with McGregor if he beats Aldo at UFC 200.
McGregor would do well to slow down his activity in terms of how often he fights and we foresee him fighting the lightweight champion at the annual end of year card.
With a loss against Aldo at UFC 200, McGregor will probably still eye a move up to 155 lbs just due to the severity of his cut.
A title fight wouldn’t be sellable as he will be on the back of two defeats but there are a number of options at lightweight for McGregor if he gets defeated by Aldo.
If Nate Diaz doesn’t get the next lightweight shot (which we don’t think he will) then he will probably be matched up with a big name along the lines of a Donald Cerrone or Anthony Pettis.
The only way a Diaz vs. McGregor rematch would make sense would be for Diaz to lose his next fight so his eligibility is dependent on how he fares in his next outing.
Another option for McGregor at lightweight would be Cerrone himself as they have gone back and forth with trash-talk for well over six months now so McGregor vs. Cowboy would make sense if Aldo gets the better of the Irishman.
Eddie Alvarez and Anthony Pettis are outside shots but the loser of RDA vs. Nurmagomedov (what we anticipate as the next lightweight title fight) is also a very doable and sellable candidate.
Summer 2017
If McGregor wins his first UFC bout at lightweight, we see him having the momentum to get the talk around a stadium show in Ireland back at fever pitch.
That would in all likelihood have to take place in the summer and May/June 2017 would make sense.
If the stadium event falls by the wayside AGAIN, then McGregor would probably be drafted into the international fight week slot once more so we could expect to see him in July 2017.
In terms of opponent, we still see it being too early for ‘The Notorious’ to return to welterweight due to what happened against Nate Diaz.
So that means a lightweight title defence and there is no scarcity of killers at 155 lbs waiting to take McGregor on if he’s the man who holds the belt.
Depending on how he fares over the next year, dos Anjos (if he is beaten by Nurmagomedov at UFC 200) would make a lot of sense given the history between he and McGregor. Cerrone is in the same boat if he gets another win or two under his belt.
What would be huge is McGregor taking on Nate Diaz if the Stockton fighter goes undefeated over the next year.
If both fighters go 2-0 between now and next summer, this would be the biggest title fight on the table for the UFC.
If McGregor loses his December bout at lightweight, he will be at something of a loss and will need to look for a money fight as all hopes of an immediate rematch with the lightweight champion would be non-existent.
Cerrone, Ferguson or Pettis would get plenty of eyes on them against McGregor, as would the Diaz rematch if he drops a loss or two over the next year.
That’s a lot to take in, we know. So we’ve graphed out how we see the next 18 months looking for Conor McGregor. Obviously this is very much an opinion piece and dependent on so many different variables that it will be open to debate.
