Listen, if Ireland just go out and win against Poland, all of this is pointless.
But it could just be necessary so it’s worth keeping an eye on.
Turkey beat Czech Republic 2-0 on Saturday evening which was great news for Ireland.
It means that a draw in their last game against Iceland will eliminate Holland’s chances of qualification entirely.
Holland are ranked 4th in the UEFA rankings so their inclusion in the playoffs would make it much tougher for Ireland to be seeded.
But Bosnia beat Wales 2-0 and Israel lost to Cyprus so that group has changed.
That affects Ireland because Bosnia are ranked higher than Ireland (Israel ranked lower) so it means that Bosnia come in instead of Israel as a higher seed than Ireland. For now.
RIGHT NOW, Ireland are not one of the seeded teams.
It gets a little worse.
Look at this group.
Albania have a game in hand over Denmark against Armenia and should finish ahead of them (they need to win though, a draw isn’t enough). ALBANIA HAVE SINCE WON 3-0 AND FINISHED SECOND.
That means Albania (ranked lower than us) go through automatically and another team ranked higher than us (Denmark) drop into the play-offs – knocking Ireland down the pecking order further.
And this is what the play-offs could look like after those relevant games have been completed.
Ireland would then be ranked below both Bosnia and Denmark and thus be kept them out of the seeded positions.
But here’s the good news…
The Turkey result was huge. If Holland came third in their group (instead of Turkey) that would be another team to bump Ireland further down the seeded positions again. And Holland are ranked 4th so we would’ve had a lot of catching up to do.
It looks increasingly unlikely that Holland will get in though. So the catching up work is made a little lighter.
So Ireland just have to catch Bosnia and Denmark in the rankings.
And there’s another group that could help us.
If Croatia go straight through in second (still have a very good chance) Norway would drop to third and they are ranked below Ireland, so we move up one position in seeded spots.
Norway are in good form but they are away to Italy in their last game whereas Croatia are away to Malta.
If it goes tits up for the Norwegians, a team ranked below us comes into the play-offs in place of a team ranked about us so Ireland slide up one extra spot.
Then, all we’d have to do is catch one of either Denmark or Bosnia.
And Ireland could catch up once the rankings are updated.
The last UEFA rankings were updated in June. Things have changed since then. And the rankings will update before the play-offs, Here is what has happened in the mean time.
If Ireland have enough points to overtake both/either Bosnia and Denmark (depending if Norway come third or not) in the rankings, they would be seeded for the play-offs.
It is not clear – either confirmed nor denied – whether more points are awarded for beating higher ranked teams (like Germany) in the UEFA rankings.
But if Ireland were to jump from 23rd to 18th (Denmark are 18th, Bosnia 19th) they should be seeded based on the predicted teams.
If Ireland were seeded, they would play either (predicted):
- Denmark
- Norway
- Slovenia
- Turkey
If Ireland were not seeded, they would play either (predicted):
- Denmark
- Ukraine
- Sweden
- Bosnia
WHAT WE WANT TO HAPPEN…
- Albania to lose to Armenia
- Cyprus to beat Bosnia
That would mean Ireland would be seeded before the rankings would even be updated (the Croatia/Norway situation would help, not confirm anything) and we would face either Turkey, Slovenia, Albania or Cyprus in the play-offs.
We’re supporting Armenia and Cyprus in the last game.
Also keep an eye out for Italy to beat Norway and Croatia to beat Malta.
