We’re down to our last two lives.

Initially, it did seem as if Ireland’s chances of being seeded for a play-off spot were very unlikely. Then a couple of results went our way. But THEN it has come back around again.

The UEFA rankings haven’t helped but it’s this simple:

If Croatia and Cyprus win… and Latvia, Turkey and Italy don’t lose… Ireland are seeded!

God, it couldn’t be any simpler.

This is the craic:

Here are the third-placed teams at present.

It looks like Hungary will go through as best third-placed team.

Points are accumulated from games between the top five teams. Results against the bottom placed in each group (Gibraltar in our case) are not taken into account.

Ukraine losing to Spain on Monday night really screwed us over. We would’ve preferred a team seeded higher than us (indisputably) to go through but there’s a still a chance a team from below can sneak in. Ukraine have now played all of their games and failed to qualify automatically.

That looks to be Hungary’s place unless Turkey take it from them.

If Turkey win their last game and Kazakhstan beat Latvia, then Latvia finish bottom of that group and Turkey are all of a sudden boosted with enough points to come in as best third place team.

After Monday’s games and the latest ranking updates, we’d rather Hungary to go through now.

With the rankings ever-changing, Hungary are too close to us for comfort – and ahead in some of the rankings – so you’d prefer them to go through rather than Turkey.

If Turkey qualify as best third place team, we don’t move up the rankings.

We still have hope for Tuesday night’s games!

The slightly good news is that Croatia should also be gone from the third place teams by Tuesday evening.

They have one game left against Malta. We presume they’ll win.

Norway are away to Italy and must win if Croatia do (a draw is no good to them).

Norway should drop down to third and they are ranked below us.

So it would then look something like this. (Bear in mind that the rankings are constantly changing. Hungary are higher unofficially and Denmark are lower but the positions – for now – would be the same)

Even though Norway come in for Croatia and Ireland are bumped up one, we’re still outside the play-off spots.

Our best hope is on Tuesday night…

Cyrpus host Bosnia in a win or bust last game on Tuesday. Should they win, they overtake Bosnia and come into third and, being ranked below us, we move up.

Another way, if Cyprus even hold Bosnia to a draw, a win for Israel (against Belgium albeit) would see them come third. And, again, Ireland would move up the rankings in Bosnia’s absence.

Likely play-off opponents

These are the teams that Ireland could now face in November.

If non-seeded:

• Ukraine
• Bosnia
• Denmark/Hungary (rank dependant)
• Sweden/Croatia

If seeded:

• Norway
• Turkey/Hungary/Denmark
• Slovenia
• Cyrpus/Israel

Unfortunately, it looks like we’ll be non-seeded too.

What we want to happen

After Monday night’s games failed to go our way, some of our options have been cut.

We have two more outs.

We need to keep an eye that Turkey don’t grab best third-place team (that happens if they win and Latvia lose) but we also don’t want Holland coming in third place in that group. A draw for Turkey would be ideal but just keep Latvia off bottom and Holland in fourth.

To be seeded, we need Croatia to win and Italy not to lose as a first port of call so Croatia would move away from this pot and bring Norway in. We need that to happen as a bare minimum and then one more result to go our way.

Here are our five options to be seeded (taking for granted that the rankings will remain in the order that they are).

1. On Monday night, if Ukraine beat Spain and on Tuesday, Croatia win and Italy don’t lose – WE ARE SEEDED.

2. On Monday night, Ukraine draw with Spain and Luxembourg beat Cyprus (and don’t forget Croatia and Italy to win as well to knock Norway down to third) – WE ARE SEEDED.

3. On Monday night, if Luxembourg hold Slovakia and Ukraine beat Spain (and then Croatia wins and Italy don’t lose) – WE ARE SEEDED.

4. On Tuesday night, if Cyrpus and Croatia win and Italy don’t lose – WE ARE SEEDED.

5. On Tuesday night, if Croatia win, Italy don’t lose, Bosnia don’t win AND Israel win – WE ARE SEEDED.

That’s granted that Hungary go through automatically and Holland do not reach the play-offs.

Complicated, yes. But just keep an eye on those teams – trust us, it works!