This time next month, the Champions Cup hype will be swirling and fans of each province will allow themselves to dream of getting to Murrayfield next May.
By January, those dreams could be well and truly shattered but that’s not the attitude to approach as battle nears.
Last season was the first in European Cup history that no Irish province made the knock-out stages. Leinster, Munster and Ulster combined for eight wins and 10 defeats with only Les Kiss’ side getting within a sniff of the last eight.
Connacht’s league win elevated them to Champions Cup top seeds and they were duly rewarded by landing Zebre in Pool 2. They have lost three key players in AJ MacGinty, Aly Muldowney and Robbie Henshaw, though, and have lost heavily in their PRO12 openers.
Each province has recruited well but only one player could be considered marqueé – Leinster [Henshaw], Munster [Jean Kleyn], Ulster [Charles Piutau] and Connacht [Marnitz Boshoff]. Two are stretching the term.
Meanwhile, the likes of Willie Le Roux [Wasps], Nemani Nadolo [Montpellier], Leone Nakarawa [Racing 92], Toby Faletau [Bath], Liam Gill [Toulon], Schalk Burger [Saracens] and JP Pietersen [Leicester] have arrived on lucrative contracts to bulk out the best of France and England.
Look who's just arrived in town @RicohArena Welcome to the Wasps' family & @premrugby @ChampionsCup @kurtley_beale pic.twitter.com/B2I0QEfPN9
— Wasps Rugby (@WaspsRugby) August 17, 2016
With recent history and signings in mind, former Leinster and Ireland centre Gordon D’Arcy told reporters, on Tuesday, it was ‘nearly impossible’ for sides to get out of their group.
Larger playing squads, filled with experienced and international players, are able to squeeze the PRO12 outfits, who are struggling to contend with the power game that is getting results. D’Arcy told the Irish Examiner:
“The budgets, the size of the squads… the goalposts have changed dramatically. The English and the French teams have gotten bigger and wealthier and the Celtic sides have largely stood still.
“It is now 25 to 30% more difficult to qualify from your own group.”
Looking at the Champions Cup pools, one would tend to agree with D’Arcy when it comes to Munster and Ulster. Connacht have a chance of reaching the knock-out stages but only because they are in with Zebre. They could target home wins and hope to claim bonus points away, although they did topple Toulouse at Stade Ernest Wallon in 2013.
Munster are swimming with sharks and doing so with an already injury-ravaged squad. They will hope Kleyn, Jaco Taute, Conor Murray, Keith Earls and Peter O’Mahony can hit the ground running, and safely, when they are fed into regular rugby.
Ulster have started the season brightly and have a backline that is the envy of most European sides but they have to deal with Clermont Auvergne, Bordeaux Beglés and England’s surprise package of 2015/16, Exeter Chiefs.
Leinster have to French sides to contend with too and a couple of reunions with Northampton Saints. They have no reason to believe they cannot top their group, which is a brave statement considering they lost five from six last season.
After highlighting the problems Irish provinces face, D’Arcy’s main solution was a decent foreign signing or two.
That is not going to happen.
The IRFU are more concerned with funding 45 to 50 bodies per senior squad than coaxing a Southern Hemisphere star to our shores for €600,000+ a season.
It’s a numbers game and Ireland are currently losing. Time to revert to the underdog role we love so much…
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