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14th March 2017
09:15am GMT
Verdict: As the betting stands, Petit Mouchoir is the narrow call given that he's put up the most solid set of performances in preparation for this, and he's being judged harshly on what happened last season. Yanworth, Buveur D'Air and Limini all give the impression that they have bigger efforts in them, but their prices reflect that to varying degrees, and the selection is a fine jumper who should go close if he doesn't overdo things from the front.
Queen Mother Champion Chase:
Douvan: Last year's Arkle winner looks untouchable in this division, and possibly in any other division should he fancy it. He's an exceptional physical specimen with no obvious flaw, and it's hard to oppose him, even without his rivals scurrying for other options. Only Arkle-bound Altior looks a potential match, and this should be a race to watch with relish for the sheer spectacle.
Fox Norton: A winner twice at Cheltenham this season, being snapped up by big-spending Alan Potts after the first of those successes, he has missed a chunk of the season due to an overreach incurred in the latter. As a result, he may have been rusty when beaten by Altior in the Game Spirit at Newbury, but had a rather distant view of Douvan's backside in the Arkle last year, and can only hope for a better vantage point this time around.
Un de Sceaux: Beaten favourite for the race a year ago behind a resurgent Sprinter Sacre, he put up his best effort over fences when landing the Clarence House Chase here in January. Would probably start favourite in Douvan's absence, but seems certain to head to the Ryanair unless something befalls the favourite. Appeals with NRNB concession, but not otherwise.
Altior: Was given an entry by Nicky Henderson, and has drawn comparison with Sprinter Sacre having taken the same path as his former stablemate so far. A massive talent who has 2018 Champion Chaser stamped on his handsome rump (figuratively – don't look for it), but will surely go the novice route, and doesn't even make any appeal with the concession of non-runner refunds.
Verdict: There's value to be had by backing Un de Sceaux with a firm who refund on non-runners, as he will surely only run if something happens to Douvan, but even the thought of the star turn not appearing is horrible to contemplate, and most true fans will be happy just to watch Douvan put his rivals to the sword as he has for the last couple of years.
Ryanair Chase:
Un de Sceaux: The form horse on his defeat of the returning Uxizandre at the course in January, but that came at two miles, and the possible chinks in his armour are a preference for soft ground and his untested stamina for this longer trip. He has won around this distance over hurdles, but that came when racing at Auteuil, and the Cheltenham hill will prove a greater test. On the plus side, the prospect of further rain will be a boon to his chances.
Empire of Dirt: Winner of the Festival Plate over course and distance a year ago, he's proven himself better than a handicapper since, winning the Troytown with his head in his chest before an excellent second in the Irish Gold Cup. If his trainer had his way, he'd be in the Gold Cup, but as the sponsor's horse, he is probably going here. Big chance despite the drop in trip, and rain will bring his stamina into play.
Uxizandre: Slightly surprising winner of this two years ago under Tony McCoy, but no fluke about the performance, and returned from lengthy injury layoff when chasing home Un de Sceaux in January. Chance hinges on whether or not he suffers from the mysterious "bounce factor", although trainer confident that will not be an issue.
Sub Lieutenant: An improved performer since switching from Sandra Hughes to Henry de Bromhead last summer, winning twice, and his defeats have come at the hands of top-notch performers Djakadam and Sizing John. A fine jumper who appears best at this trip, he's had the ideal preparation, so appeals as capable of beating a couple of higher-rated rivals.
Verdict: He may not have the highest profile in the race, but Sub Lieutenant is a superb jumper racing over his ideal trip with no concerns over the ground or his preparation for the race, so looks a decent each-way bet against Un de Sceaux, who could be vulnerable at this distance. The same owner's Empire of Dirt is the one feared most, assuming he doesn't head to the Gold Cup instead.
Stayers' Hurdle:
Unowhatimeanharry: It's hard to believe this fella was beaten in his first 11 starts over hurdles, but a move from Helen Nelmes to Harry Fry has been the making of him (aided by the application of a tongue tie), and he's now won all eight starts for his current stable, including all the big staying events run in the UK this season. Not flashy, but tough and consistent, and looks much the most solid favourite over hurdles all week.
Shaneshill: Tends to run very well at this meeting, finishing second in the Champion Bumper, Supreme Novices' and RSA Chase in the last three years, an achievement which highlights his class and adaptability. Jumping has been an issue both over fences and hurdles, but won his prep for this in the Galmoy Hurdle, and likely to raise his game once more.
Jezki: Undeniable class act in this having won the Champion Hurdle in 2014 but injury has intervened since. Won on his belated comeback at Navan, and deep ground a plausible excuse for defeat in the Red Mills Hurdle at Gowran last month. Has won over this trip at Punchestown, but not guaranteed to relish a test of stamina around here, especially if the ground doesn't dry out.
Cole Harden: Winner of this race in 2015 when making all, and reportedly suffering from knee injury when disappointing last year. Back to form when second to Unowhatimeanharry in the Cleeve Hurdle in January, and the one who is most capable of spoiling the party, although he would also be seen to better effect on good ground.
Verdict: It's very hard to oppose Unowhatimeanharry given his exemplary record, and further rain will arguably suit him better than his main rivals. Cole Harden looked to be coming to hand when chasing the selection home over C&D in the Cleeve, and will get closer if the weather does relent.
Gold Cup:
Cue Card: Tanking along when taking his first ever fall in last year's edition, a blunder which cost connections a £1m bonus, he looked as good as ever when landing the Betfair Chase in November. He then bounced back from a subdued second in the King George to land a second Ascot Chase with ease. The downside is his age – the only 11-year-olds to have won the Gold Cup since the war have been Cheltenham legends Cottage Rake and Mandarin.
Native River: Stablemate of Cue Card, with age firmly on his side at seven, and is much improved from the horse who finished second in the National Hunt Chase twelve months ago. Regarded as a dour stayer by many, he has displayed a fine turn of foot on more than one occasion this winter, and seeks to emulate Burrough Hill Lad, Master Oats and Synchronised by winning the Welsh National and Gold Cupin the same season.
Djakadam: Runner-up in 2015 and 2016, so would be emulating 1994 hero The Fellow by going one better. Had a poor preparation last year after falling in his prep run, but no hold-ups this time round, and his trainer is making confident noises. Those jumping lapses (also fell in 2014 JLT) are worth bearing in mind, but a fine lepper when he's concentrating, and still a relative youngster despite running at his fourth Festival.
Sizing John: Gave up trying to beat Douvan after Christmas having failed seven times, and he's enjoying his new role, winning the Kinloch Brae from Sub Lieutenant and proved he stays three miles in a slowly-run Irish Gold Cup, when holding too much finishing speed for Empire of Dirt and Don Poli. Needs to prove that this longer trip is within his compass, however, and no hiding place in what will be a well-run race.
Verdict: This promises to be a thorough test of stamina, especially with plenty of rain in the long-range forecast. That will suit Native River most of the principals. He's a "glorified handicapper" in the eyes of some, but the Welsh National has been a very good trial for this over the years, and he's got more speed than he's been given credit for. One to bear in mind at bigger odds is Bristol de Mai, who is much better than he showed behind the selection at Newbury.
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