What’s for certain is that we have to beat Scotland.
But even then, the remainder of Ireland’s road to France Euro 2016 is going to be complicated, dramatic and full of twists. The team’s 1-1 draw with Poland marks the half-way point in the group, keeps us in touch with Scotland, Germany and Poland, but two points off a play-off place.
Here’s the group table after Sunday’s results:
So far, none of the top teams have dropped points to the group minnows, Georgia and Gibraltar, and that’s a pattern that looks very likely to continue. Therefore, we can effectively add six points to Ireland, Germany and Poland’s tallies. (It may be different for Scotland, but we’ll come to that).
Ireland play Gibraltar away and Georgia at home in September and, without being overly presumptuous, we can fully expect to have 14 points when we host Germany in October (ignore the Scotland game for a minute).
A similar scenario exists for last night’s opponents. Poland host Georgia in June and will expect a further three points, after beating the side 4-0 away last November. Although the game was goalless at half-time and the eventual scoreline flattered the Poles.
However, we should realistically expect our rivals to add at least six points to their current tally.
Meanwhile, you could combine the Gibraltar and Georgia teams, allow them to play 22 players, with two goalkeepers, and they’d still likely receive a pasting from world champs Germany.
So here’s how the group table will likely look after Ireland, Germany and Poland get the fixtures against the bottom two sides out of the way. (Minus goal difference).
We’ve deliberately not accounted for a Scottish result away to Georgia, because it appears to be least certain of the remaining fixtures against the group cannon fodder.
Although they’re already out of contention for Euro 2016, Georgia proved they are a difficult side at home against Ireland last September, when Aiden McGeady’s stunning goal won the game in the final minute, while the Polish result was slightly harsh on the balance of play.
So any dropped points for Scotland in their game away to Georgia will benefit Ireland immeasurably, as it looks like catching Gordon Strachan’s side, and finishing in a play-off spot, may be our most realistic chance of getting to France next year.
However, Scotland dropping points on September 4 in Georgia is possibly best-case scenario, so let’s now say they do get the win there, the group will come down to three games each between the top four teams.
Now, let’s imagine Germany will, well, be Germany, and beat everyone, we’ll then be left in a mini-group situation with Poland and Scotland.
This will be the situation if the aforementioned permutations happen, and it is very, very tight. Ireland need to beat Scotland at the Aviva Stadium in June, and get at least a draw away to Poland in the final group game in October.
Another result against Germany would also be very helpful.
So, if we defeat Scotland in June, we’ll have 17 points, moving into the play-off spot, but we’ll need Poland to either draw or beat the Scots at Hampden Park on October 8, the same night Ireland host Germany.
Let’s now imagine the table if Scotland and Poland play out the same result as their previous meeting, a 2-2 draw, here’s how the table would look heading into our final game with Poland.
So, if this myriad of permutations, a mixture of most likely and best case scenario for Ireland, were to occur, a draw in the final game against Poland would secure Ireland a play-off place, a win would result in automatic qualification,
However, it’s going to very tight and we’re relying on others, particularly Poland in their game against Scotland, to help us out. And even then Ireland will have to win a play-off, but we’ll worry about that if, and hopefully when, we get there.
What’s in absolutely no doubt whatsoever is that Ireland must beat Scotland at the Aviva in June.
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