There are now just three possible last-16 fixtures for Ireland if Italy are beaten tonight

It's harder to work out how this tournament works than it is to get knocked out of it.

The expansion of Euro 2016 to 24 teams from 16 has taken a simple tournament formula and turned into a minefield. For example here is the explanation from Wikipedia of how it is decided who the four-best third-placed qualifiers will meet in the last-16. Clear as mud, eh? Still, the line ups are taking place for the second round and there are potentially some tasty ties ahead, though just two last-16 fixtures are locked in stone: Switzerland v Poland and Italy v Spain. Germany's victory over Northern Ireland has made the task for Martin O'Neill's side somewhat less confusing: beat Italy and they'll be through to the knockout stages. But who will they play? There are now just three options.

Option #1

It's unlikely, but Ireland can still finish second in the group. For this to happen they need to beat Italy and hope Sweden beat Belgium and overturn the two-goal goal difference deficit in the process. Ireland are currently -3 and Sweden are -1. So that's highly unlikely, but if it did happen Ireland would play on Sunday in Toulouse against the winner of Group F, which could still be Hungary, Portugal or Iceland.

Option #2

What is far more realistic is that Ireland will finish in third spot which, as we know will be guaranteed if we beat the Italians. If Hungary beat Portugal at 5pm today Ireland will play their last-16 game against Croatia in Lens on Saturday.

Option #3

Hungary and Portugal is a draw or a win for Cristiano Ronaldo and Co and Ireland will be playing hosts France in Lyon on Sunday at 2pm. Got that? Right. Don't ask us how they came up with that formula. It's all just a little bit too much like Alan Partridge's World Cup wheel... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsQpWBSjVzI