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Five questions we’re asking after Week 11 of the NFL
Published 14:52 23 Nov 2015 GMT
Updated 15:19 23 Nov 2015 GMT
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14.
If you're wondering why it feels like there are five or six good teams and then a giant pile of meh in the NFL this season, it's because that's exactly what we've got. There are 14 teams at either 5-5 or 4-6 at the ten-game mark, all of whom can harbour legitimate postseason hopes, with an almighty scrap in prospect for the remaining play-off berths. With that in mind, we begin our look at the action from Week 11 with the obvious question: 1. Which teams with a .500 record or worse are best positioned to make the postseason? Here's the group we are looking at: AFC Buffalo 5-4 (but face 9-0 New England tonight) Kansas City 5-5 NY Jets 5-5 Indianapolis 5-5 Houston 5-5 Jacksonville 4-6 Oakland 4-6 Miami 4-6 Indy, Houston and Jacksonville are likely battling for one spot that will go to the winner of the AFC South, and while back-up quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, again employed in relief of injured starter Andrew Luck, ran his record to 3-0 as a starter against the Atlanta Falcons, the wounded Falcons gave him and the Colts plenty of help. Houston, meanwhile, continued its recent defensive dominance to win its third game on the trot, with another back-up at the helm, TJ Yates. The Texans have conceded just 29 points in wins over the Titans, Bengals and the Jets, with superstar lineman JJ Watt racking up 5.5 sacks in that spell.
They remain offensively challenged outside of stud receiver DeAndre Hopkins, but the D should keep them in every game. The Week 15 clash with the Colts could be a division decider.
Elsewhere, Pittsburgh (6-4) look a decent bet for a wild card, leaving the remaining berth between the rest of these middling outfits. Kansas City and Buffalo look the safest bets - the Chiefs have won four in a row on the back of some mean defence of their own to get back to .500, while the Bills are 5-2 with Tyrod Taylor under centre, including a pair of wins since his return from injury.
NFC
Seattle 5-5
NY Giants 5-5
Tampa Bay 5-5
Washington 4-6
Philadelphia 4-6
St Louis 4-6
Chicago 4-6
New Orleans 4-6
Dallas 3-7
The picture is pretty similar in the NFC, with one division up for grabs and the rest fighting over the final wild card spot.
All four teams remain firmly in the hunt in the NFC East, with the 5-5 Giants maintaining their lead despite enjoying the bye week. Philly and Washington lost to NFC South rivals Tampa Bay and Carolina by a combined score of 89-33, so the Giants main opposition should come from the Dallas Cowboys, who finally got staring QB Tony Romo back on the field and abruptly ended a seven-game losing streak against Miami.
https://twitter.com/Edwerderespn/status/668537239052374017
Dallas has the best talent in the division, but having split their two games with New York have they left themselves enough time?
Whoever finishes second in the NFC North between 7-3 Minnesota and Green Bay will grab the first wild card, leaving the rest of the field chasing the 6-4 Falcons for the second spot, and given Atlanta's recent losing spin, your money should certainly be on one of Seattle, Tampa Bay or Chicago emerging from the pack.
The Bucs stunned Philadelphia yesterday, with top rookie pick Jameis Winston throwing five touchdowns in a one-sided affair. Winston has improved with each game this season, and now sports a pretty decent 15-9 TD-interception ratio for his maiden season, but it seems a lot to ask for him to outpace Seattle and Chicago over the final six weeks.
The Seahawks continued their recent dominance of San Francisco to get to 5-5 and their postseason experience will make them favourites, but the Bears are definite contenders after going toe-to-toe with the Denver Broncos, eventually losing to our third back-up passer of the week, Brock Osweiler, who came in to the line-up for injured QB1 Peyton Manning.
2. Is Chip Kelly on the hotseat in Philadelphia?
Philly's is a notoriously rabid fanbase and the Eagles' 4-6 record certainly has plenty questioning Kelly's position.
The head coach arrived from the college ranks with a huge reputation for innovative offence and a 'marginal gains' type nose for detail, right down to the preparation of smoothies individually tailored to each players' needs.
Now in his third season, Kelly has just a single play-off appearance on his NFL resumé, and has already matched the number of losses from his first two years at the helm, with yesterday's 45-17 beatdown at the hands of Tampa Bay a new low.
https://twitter.com/RCummingsTBO/status/668529286261792768
However, he has steadily consolidated his position in the Eagles' structure, trading away talented players who didn't fit his system and being handed control over personnel decisions this summer.
Owner Jeffrey Lurie has tied himself pretty strongly to Kelly, but that won't stop him cutting bait if his status with the fans continues to plummet and the media circle begins to close in.
https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/668627290952044544
3. Could anyone else in the NFL make this throw?
Technically, yes. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while.
But really, no. Nobody else in the NFL has the blend of pocket movement,accuracy and ability to throw on the run that Aaron Rodgers does.
Credit too, of course, to James Jones for the catch, the crucial moment in Green Bay's 30-13 win over the Vikings that put the Packers back atop the NFC North for now.
https://twitter.com/NFL/status/668579591208873984
Speaking of squirrels...
https://twitter.com/rodger_sherman/status/668549956693815296
4. Can Cincinnati be trusted?
The 8-2 Bengals dropped their second prime-time game in a row last night, following last week's spluttering defeat by the Texans by losing a 34-31 thriller to the Arizona Cardinals.
Cincy's play-off aspirations have not really suffered over the past seven days, but the perception that the Bengals freeze when the lights shine brightest will simply not go away until they finally win a play-off game.
Marvin Lewis is the longest-tenured head coach in the NFL outside of Bill Belichick, but since taking over in 2003 he has yet to win a play-off game, suffering six first-round exits, including in each of the last four seasons.
The Bengals failed to score more than 13 points in any of those four defeats, with quarterback Andy Dalton bearing the brunt of the blame for his turnover-laden outings.
Dalton's history of poor performances in nationally televised games came to the fore after the Bengals scored just six points against Houston last week, but despite coming out on the losing side against a Cardinals unit among the favourites for the NFC, Cincinnati's offence actually came out of the game with plenty of credit.
Dalton helped rally Cincy from ten points down in the final six minutes, throwing a TD to blossoming tight end Tyler Eifert before marching back down into position for a game-tying field goal.
The defence may have coughed up a last-second game-winner to the Cards, but in that comeback the Bengals at least showed they might finally have the composure to end their postseason drought.
5. Which fans should begin scouting for the No.1 pick?
Six games left and it's now clear which teams will be picking in the top ten of April's draft. If the season finished today, the Cleveland Browns would be choosing first, and here is the rest of the top ten as it stands:
- Cleveland Browns 2-8
- San Diego Chargers 2-8
- Tennessee Titans 2-8
- Baltimore Ravens 3-7
- Detroit Lions 3-7
- San Francisco 49ers 3-7
- Dallas Cowboys 3-7
- Miami Dolphins 4-6
- Oakland Raiders 4-6
- Jacksonville Jaguars 4-6
